Tuesday, January 19, there will be an important special election in Massachusetts which will decide who will replace Ted Kennedy. When Kennedy died in August, Massachusetts scrambled to change the law to allow the governor to name a temporary replacement. If the Massachusetts senate seat had remained vacant until January 19, Senate Democrats would not have had the votes to push Obamacare as far as it has gotten.
Now the voters of Massachusetts have the chance to make history. Given the dominance of Democrats in the state it would be almost impossible for a Republican to win under normal circumstances.
However, there is a lot of anger with Obama and the Democrats and Republican Scott Brown’s campaign has increasingly drawn attention and enthusiasm. He has also gotten attention with a series of adds emphasizing his position on lower taxes and opposition to other Democrat policies. The following ad drawing parallels with President John F. Kennedy’s tax policy has drawn attention nationwide:
A few days ago Rassmussen had Republican Scott Brown only nine points behind Democrat Martha Coakley. Today, Public Policy Polling has the race between Brown and Coakley tied 48 – 47.
Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:
-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.
-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.
-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.
Democrats are nervous and there have been reports that, if Brown wins, state officials may try to delay certifying the election until Obamacare passes.
A win for Scott Brown is still a long shot. High Republican and Independent turnout on election day is the key to this election. Brown is outspent by Coakley and needs more money to advertise. You can contribute to his campaign here.
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