The Iranian people are again rising up against the tyrannical regime that has ruled them for the past 30 years. This is happening at a time when Iran may be on the verge becoming a nuclear power posing a threat to its immediate neighbors and the world.
Protests increased after the death of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri on December 19th and have continued on the Shiite religious holiday Ashura and beyond.
Montazeri once was the designated successor to Khomeini, the founder of the current regime. He was demoted just months before Khomeini’s death in 1989 after criticizing the repressive practices of the regime and advocating a more open society.
Six months ago, after the fraudulent election in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner of a second term by the Iranian Supreme Ruler Ayatollah Khamenei, demonstrations by the opposition Green Movement erupted throughout the country. While they were sparsely covered by Western media, Iranian students were able to share information, pictures and video with the world through Twitter, Facebook and Youtube.
The demonstrations were followed by brutal repression from government forces. Here is a video on the rise of the Green Movement and the events of last year:
After months of sitting on the fence, the Obama administration is showing more interest in supporting the resistance movement. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Since the opposition movement’s demonstrations recently peaked after the death of reformist Islamic cleric Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, a number of Iran scholars in the U.S. said they have been contacted by senior administration officials eager to understand if the Iranian unrest suggested a greater threat to Tehran’s government than originally understood.
“The tone has changed in the conversation,” said one scholar who discussed Iran with senior U.S. officials. “There’s realization now that this unrest really matters.”
Better late than never.
The Obama administration’s new interest in the Green Movement may also be motivated by the realization that Obama’s overtures to the Iranian government have been rebuffed and mocked by the regime. The threat of sanctions is not credible after the Europeans and both Bush and Obama have been threatening sanctions for years and the Iranian rulers continue working on getting a nuclear bomb.
It is clear that Obama will not initiate military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel may try to strike, but it will be difficult for Israel to orchestrate the successful destruction of multiple nuclear facilities.
Revolutions are hard to predict, but Iran and the world would be better off if the irrational, terrorist-sponsoring regime is replaced before it acquires nuclear weapons. Iran would still likely become a nuclear power, but nuclear weapons in the hands of a democratic government with friendly relations with the West and with its neighbors would be less of threat than nuclear bombs in the hands of rulers who are openly calling for the destruction of Israel and Western democracies.
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