Nuclear Proliferation

President Obama is revising America’s nuclear strategy and will limit the conditions under which the United States would use nuclear weapons in a report called the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). The New York Times describes a key change of the new policy:

It eliminates much of the ambiguity that has deliberately existed in American nuclear policy since the opening days of the cold war. For the first time, the United States is explicitly committing not to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, even if they attacked the United States with biological or chemical weapons or launched a crippling cyberattack.

This is a radical change from the policy pursued by every President starting with John F. Kennedy. Until today, the US position was that an attack by a foreign power against the US or its allies could result in an overwhelming nuclear response obliterating the enemy. This kept the peace during the Cold War. The Soviet Union had conventional superiority in Europe, but, if it had chosen to overrun West Germany and other parts of Western Europe, it faced the threat that Moscow and all other major Soviet cities would cease to exist.

Now, our stated position is that if someone attacks us or our allies, we’ll have a bunch of lawyers review the attacking regime’s “compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty” before we decide what to do. Communist China must be salivating at the prospect of invading Taiwan without threat of US retaliation.

Obama said that he is carving out an exception for “outliers like Iran and North Korea.” And if there were serious attack on the United States, it is still hard to believe than an American government would not retaliate overwhelmingly. But the problem with the NPR is that much of the ambiguity of what the United States may do is removed. Powerline comments:

The cardinal rule, when it comes to nuclear weapons, is keep ’em guessing. We want our enemies to believe that we may well be crazy enough to vaporize them, given sufficient provocation; one just can’t tell. There is a reason why that ambiguity has been the American government’s policy for more than 50 years. Obama cheerfully tosses overboard the strategic consensus of two generations.

Or pretends to, anyway. Does anyone doubt that the administration would use nukes in a heartbeat if it considered such measures necessary? I don’t. The problem is that when the time comes to actually use nuclear weapons, it is too late. The danger here is not that the Obama administration has really gone pacifist. On the contrary, the significance of today’s announcement appears to be entirely symbolic–just one more chance to preen. The problem is that our enemies understand symbolism and maybe take it too seriously. To them, today’s announcement is another sign that our government has gone soft, and one more inducement to undertake aggressive action against the United States.

Hot Air comments on the changed incentives for jihadists and rogue regimes:

In limiting the nuclear deterrent to nuclear weapons (and, in certain cases, biological attacks) instead of WMD generally, doesn’t this create an incentive to focus on developing bio and chemical weapons? In most cases those are less dangerous than nukes, but nukes are also harder to develop and more easy to monitor. Do we really want tomorrow’s A.Q. Khans focusing on smallpox instead?

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The Iranian people are again rising up against the tyrannical regime that has ruled them for the past 30 years. This is happening at a time when Iran may be on the verge becoming a nuclear power posing a threat to its immediate neighbors and the world.

Protests increased after the death of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri on December 19th and have continued on the Shiite religious holiday Ashura and beyond.

Montazeri once was the designated successor to Khomeini, the founder of the current regime. He was demoted just months before Khomeini’s death in 1989 after criticizing the repressive practices of the regime and advocating a more open society.

Six months ago, after the fraudulent election in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner of a second term by the Iranian Supreme Ruler Ayatollah Khamenei, demonstrations by the opposition Green Movement erupted throughout the country. While they were sparsely covered by Western media, Iranian students were able to share information, pictures and video with the world through Twitter, Facebook and Youtube.

The demonstrations were followed by brutal repression from government forces. Here is a video on the rise of the Green Movement and the events of last year:

After months of sitting on the fence, the Obama administration is showing more interest in supporting the resistance movement. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Since the opposition movement’s demonstrations recently peaked after the death of reformist Islamic cleric Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, a number of Iran scholars in the U.S. said they have been contacted by senior administration officials eager to understand if the Iranian unrest suggested a greater threat to Tehran’s government than originally understood.

“The tone has changed in the conversation,” said one scholar who discussed Iran with senior U.S. officials. “There’s realization now that this unrest really matters.”

Better late than never.

The Obama administration’s new interest in the Green Movement may also be motivated by the realization that Obama’s overtures to the Iranian government have been rebuffed and mocked by the regime. The threat of sanctions is not credible after the Europeans and both Bush and Obama have been threatening sanctions for years and the Iranian rulers continue working on getting a nuclear bomb.

It is clear that Obama will not initiate military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel may try to strike, but it will be difficult for Israel to orchestrate the successful destruction of multiple nuclear facilities.

Revolutions are hard to predict, but Iran and the world would be better off if the irrational, terrorist-sponsoring regime is replaced before it acquires nuclear weapons. Iran would still likely become a nuclear power, but nuclear weapons in the hands of a democratic government with friendly relations with the West and with its neighbors would be less of threat than nuclear bombs in the hands of rulers who are openly calling for the destruction of Israel and Western democracies.

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Obama wins Nobel Peace Price

October 10, 2009

This would have been a great follow up to Saturday Night Live’s parody of Obama last week. The Norwegian Nobel Price Commitee has apparently decided to compete with SNL in creating comedy. Well, we can’t really take the Nobel Peace Price too serious after it has been awarded to Yasser Arafat, Jimmy Carter and Al Gore. However, there are potentially serious consequences to this absurdity. How will this affect Obama’s decisions on the war in Afghanistan and Iraq? Will the “great peacemaker” send in the additional troops to Afghanistan that his general thinks are necessary to win? Will Obama take a tough stand against Iran’s nuclear ambitions and contemplate a military strike to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities? This is also another distractions from the Democrat’s attempt to permanently shift the country toward socialism by taking control of sixteen percent of the economy. Crucial votes on Obamacare are coming up in the coming weeks. We need to stay focused on defeating Obamacare. Don’t let the mainstream media’s infatuation with the Obama messiah distract you from the real issues!

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Our Dear Leader Stumbles On

October 5, 2009

President Barack Obama continues to demonstrate either his total lack of experience or more likely his unbelievable arrogance. Last week he went to Copenhagen to support Chicago’s pitch to get the 2016 Olympics. He told the world that he, Michelle and their daughters would love to welcome the world to their neighborhood. The American media was in love, but the world did not care and eliminated Chicago with the least votes of the four contestants. This is probably a blessing for the President. One can only imagine the next seven years of stories of corrupt with links to Obama’s closest advisers that would come out of the Windy City.

Much more seriously, on the same day Obama’s delegation to the talks with Iran on their nuclear weapons program handed Iran another delay in doing anything serious about their progress towards becoming a nuclear power. At this point, sanctions really would be too little too late. We need to step up support for the Iranian resistance that has grown so much since the June election fraud and possibly implement a blockade of sea lanes. Meanwhile, the Obama administration is still discussing the possibility of imposing some sort of sanctions soon. The Iranian government must be really scared! I hope that behind the scenes we are putting in place plans to take out the Iranian nuclear program before it is too late. More likely, we’ll have to rely on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu to act.

Indecisiveness is the mode in which Obama approaches the war in Afghanistan. After an early bold move to replace the lead general in Afghanistan, Obama says he needs more time to consider the request from General McChrystal for more troops. It looks increasingly like Obama is about to cave to the left of the Democrat party and accept defeat in Afghanistan.

At least some cracks are starting to appear in the adoration of the media for Obama. Here is Saturday Night Live’s latest:

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Debka.org, an Israeli military intelligence website, reports on a move by the US government to get ready to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities. I hope it is true.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6288

Excerpt:

The Pentagon has brought forward to December 2009 the target-date for producing the first 15-ton super bunker-buster bomb (GBU-57A/B) Massive Ordinance Penetrator, which can reach a depth of 60.09 meters underground before exploding. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that top defense agencies and air force units were also working against the clock to adapt the bay of a B2a Stealth bomber for carrying and delivering the bomb.

The Pentagon has ordered the number of bombs rolling off the production line increased from four to ten – a rush job triggered in May by the discovery that Iran was hiding a second uranium enrichment plant under a mountain near Qom – a discovery which prompted this week’s international outcry.

Congress has since quietly inserted the necessary funding in the 2009 budget.

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